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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."