🔗 Share this article

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.