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A mere 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or a cause of the side's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

In the latest match, though, the sideline response was far more favourable. As the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?

That’s an exceptionally difficult question to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, even as the victories have piled up.

As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team who have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – yet right now the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their star man to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.

The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, arced right inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa have to face as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting the football into the top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
• The winger could transform into the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.

This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.

Savoring the Moment

Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned the young forward now would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.

The current run is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.